To Go Or To Not To Go

The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills just played what I can comfortably say was a top 5 regular season game of the last 10 years. It was a game that for about 2 and a half quarters looked like it would set the tone for the Ravens season. This would be the year they had the complete roster and were able to take and hold the leads they created. Instead, we witnessed a collapse of a lifetime.

The Ravens ended up losing a game in which they had a 99.1% chance to win with less than five minutes to go. Unfortunately for this team, this is nothing new. Since 2022, the Ravens have lost EIGHT games in which they have had a win probability of over 90% at any point in the game, an almost unfathomable amount, and 3 more than the next team over that same span. Now, in only 6 of those was Lamar the starter, but in all of them, they had a 75% win probability at some point in the 4th quarter. This makes it very apparent that it’s not just a coincidence, but it’s a pattern. Look at this graphic.

That has floated around Twitter quite a bit. And it is quite damning. The question is why does this keep happening?

Obviously you can look at one play mistakes such as the Derrick Henry fumble from last night, but I think that the root of the problem is elsewhere. I think it starts with coaching. It’s a bit harsh to blame everything on the coaching staff, as I actually think Monken was very good last night and despite the defense giving up over 40 points and allowing Josh Allen to mount the comeback, I think Zach Orr’s unit showed some strong flashes of being the same defense from last year throughout the game. However, I think John Harbaugh deserves some strong blame in this game.

Although hindsight is always 20/20, to me the Ravens lost this football game the second they punted the football on 4th and 3 late in the game. On paper given the situation, you might think that is crazy. They were winning the game by only 2 points and were in their own territory. The Bills had no timeouts and would have to march all the way down the field to attempt to win the game. However, to me it was a no-brainer to send the offense back on the field. At that point in the game the Bills offense was absolutely rolling. They looked unstoppable and I think everyone in the world could have told you that if you gave Josh Allen over a minute to drive down the field into field goal range he would have been able to do it. Not only this, but the Ravens actually had 3 timeouts as well to stop the clock if they needed to had they not converted their 4th down attempt. But realistically, with the way that the Ravens offense was moving, would that really have happened? Is there really a chance that Monken dials up his best 4th and short play for his team to go out and win the game and Lamar doesn’t deliver? Obviously, there is a chance that that happens. But I would so much rather put the fate of the game in the hands of the most talented quarterback in franchise history, than allow the other team to do the same for theirs.

Overall, I am almost always a fan of allowing your offense to be the one to dictate the game for you. I prefer keeping my offense out on the field when it's even remotely close to statistically favorable to do so. And thankfully with the evolution of win probability calculators, this has become much easier to determine. However, sometimes those win probability calculators need to go out the window. When the game is on the line, sometimes you have to throw caution into the wind and put your nuts on the table. John Harbaugh needs to take note of this. And until this happens, this Ravens team is never going to take that next step and make the Super Bowl run that we all know they have the talent to.