Predictions Szn: The MVP Pick for 2025

It’s that time of year again.

The time of year right after all the big name NBA free agents are signed, while football has been over for nearly 5 months. That window where there’s absolutely nothing to watch but baseball, and Joey Chestnut reminds us all who the greatest athlete of all time is.

You’re probably thinking oh, “he’s talking about the days that follow the 4th of July, right?”. And you’d be wrong, because right now is the season of meaningless QB rankings as well as the summer phase of predicting every NFL team’s record before any franchise releases a single depth chart.

More importantly, it’s the time of year to predict a MVP for the 2025 NFL season. Consider this formal advice for who you should pick- mainly because the only article I wrote on this website was an MVP prediction that came true last season.

I correctly issued an advisory to double down on my Josh Allen for MVP pick and for those who swiftly ignored, you paid the ultimate price.

Now here’s where YOU need to pay attention because I spent hours, on hours, on hours completing research for this year’s NFL MVP selection. Dare I go 2/2 on this sexy website?

Drumroll please….

This year, I will be laying some hard-earned Floridian currency on Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player at +575! Wow, what a surprise…

Now let’s congratulate Josh on winning his 2nd MVP trophy, going back to back up against some very stiff competition in Patty Mahomes, Joe Brrr, and Lamar.

On a more serious note, Allen is not the Vegas favorite after winning it in ‘24 and to be honest there’s a major argument that Lamar Jackson should’ve taken home the hardware last season. However, analysts and writers factor wins heavily and that’s mostly why Allen stole the spotlight.

On a hot Friday evening at 5 pm on July 13th, Josh Allen sits tied for second best odds to win MVP. The Bills’ QB trails only Lamar Jackson (+500) and has the same odds to win as Joe Burrow (+575). Patrick Mahomes (+650) sits behind the top 3 and Jayden Daniels (+800) follows short behind.

Now I’m not just going to give you a pick without some background evidence to show you why I made this decision, I’m not Stephen A Smith. I’ll start with some notable quarterbacks around Allen on the MVP ladder and why I think they WON’T win the award.

Joe Burrow is coming off the best statistical season of his career and tallied numbers as a passer Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen didn’t even come close to. However, the reason why Joe Burrow didn’t win last year is because the Bengals missed the playoffs. I believe even if Cincy snuck in as a wild card in 2024, Burrow still wouldn’t have won MVP. Winning games is what matters the most to the voters and I believe with all the contractual issues going into training camp with the Bengals front office, I don’t see how Cincy can improve on the defensive side of the ball. They may sneak in as a wild card in 2025, but their defense and special teams unit has glaring holes once again. This obviously will hold back the team and hold back Joe Burrow from winning what could’ve been back to back MVP trophies.

There’s no reason to believe that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won’t be atop the NFL’s best in 2025. However, if you want to talk law of averages, it will be near impossible to duplicate what the Ravens’ offense did in 2024. A regression to the mean is what I’m getting at, and if you look at the rest of the AFC North it’s always a blood bath. If you allow me to reference Burrow’s reason for not winning MVP, I believe the Ravens will be 1-2 wins short of a better chance for Lamar to win MVP, and that’s really all I have.

The Kansas City Chiefs failed to complete the 3-peat in February and they went out in a depressing fashion. Despite the fact the Eagles had one of the greatest Super Bowl winning rosters in the history of the league, there were numerous problems with the Chiefs last year including offensive line struggles, a plethora of injuries to the offense, and a defense that was not up to Kansas City standards. This year I see the Chiefs taking a step back defensively while the offense improves in the passing game. Overall, I believe the Chargers or Broncos have a better chance to win the division this season. While you can almost guarantee Mahomes will lead the Chiefs to a playoff berth, I do think it’s a contract reset year- much like how the Bills went into the 2024 season (Diggs trade, Poyer let go, etc.).

As for Josh Allen…

He’s completely lost the narrative of being reckless with the ball, and Buffalo surpassed every expert’s expectations after the squad made it to the AFC Championship because of HIM. No one thought the Bills would have a top 5 offense with a WR core consisting of Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, and Keon Coleman. They traded for Amari Cooper as well but he didn’t find himself involved in the gameplan as much as they wanted him to. In spite of surpassing expectations, the chemistry will only improve in 2025. On top of a relatively easy schedule being in the weakest division in football, the Bills have the highest win total and are favored by Vegas in every single game they play in 2025.

If the Bills return the same offense (+ Elijah Moore) from last season, while making key additions on defense like Joey Bosa/Maxwell Hairston - there’s no telling how good this team can be. If the Bills end up 14-3 with similar production from Allen in the run game like in ‘24, you can just hand the MVP trophy over to Josh. All in all, the volume of which Allen has the ball in his hands will always put him in MVP consideration, it’s just up to the Bills to be the best team in the AFC, and Vegas is on their side so we’ll see what happens.

That’s it for MVP talk, while you’re here, I might as well give you MY meaningless QB rankings for each signal caller in the NFL. (Remember when I mentioned that?) You’re welcome…

CURRENT NFL QB RANKINGS

Rules:

if you haven’t played a season in the NFL I got to put you at the bottom automatically

this isn’t a legacy ranking, it’s the current ranking going into 2025, and it isn’t a future projection either

1. Josh Allen

2. Lamar Jackson

3. Joe Burrow

4. Patrick Mahomes

5. Jayden Daniels

6. Jalen Hurts

7. Matthew Stafford

8. Justin Herbert

9. Baker Mayfield

10. CJ Stroud

11. Jared Goff

12. Brock Purdy

13. Jordan Love

14. Kyler Murray

15. Dak Prescott

16. Bo Nix

17. Geno Smith

18. Trevor Lawrence

19. Tua Tagovailoa

20. Sam Darnold

21. Caleb Williams

22. Bryce Young

23. Aaron Rodgers

24. Drake Maye

25. Michael Penix Jr.

26. Justin Fields

27. Daniel Jones

28. Russell Wilson

29. Joe Flacco

30. Cam Ward

31. JJ McCarthy

32. Tyler Shough